Accurately predicting the future is central to absolutely everything. Phil...
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View ArticleVitalik Buterin on effective altruism, better ways to fund public goods, the...
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View ArticleDanny Hernandez on forecasting and the drivers of AI progress
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Notes on good judgement and how to develop it
Judgement, which I roughly define as ‘the ability to weigh complex information and reach calibrated conclusions,’ is clearly a valuable skill. In our simple analysis of which skills make people most...
View ArticleCarl Shulman on the common-sense case for existential risk work and its...
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View ArticleClay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine
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View ArticleTom Davidson on how quickly AI could transform the world
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View ArticleMichael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and...
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View ArticleIan Morris on whether deep history says we’re heading for an intelligence...
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View ArticleSpencer Greenberg on causation without correlation, money and happiness,...
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View ArticleMatt Clancy on whether science is good
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View ArticleCarl Shulman on the economy and national security after AGI (Part 1)
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View ArticleEzra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks
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View ArticleCarl Shulman on government and society after AGI (Part 2)
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View ArticleNate Silver on making sense of SBF, and his biggest critiques of effective...
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